Financial Forecasting for SMEs

Financial forecasting for SMEs should centre around having a detailed business model that generates a live, integrated view of your Profit and Loss, Cash Flow, and Balance Sheet. Updated every month with the actual numbers. So you can make confident decisions about your business.

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Financial forecasting that shows you where your business is heading, before it’s too late to act

Most business owners have some form of forecast. The problem is that most forecasts are a Profit and Loss projection on a spreadsheet. They show expected income and costs.

What they don’t show is whether you will have the cash to fund that activity. What your balance sheet looks like. Or what happens if one key assumption turns out to be wrong.

FDPack builds forecasts that integrate all three financial statements into a single live model, updated every month with your actual results.

The result: a financial picture you can trust and use to make real decisions.

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Profit & Loss

cashflow

Cashflow

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Balance Sheet

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Thank you for helping us to get our figures together. I can now sleep better at night.

William Moore, CEO of AirBox Systems

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Why most SME financial forecasts fall short

A Profit and loss projection only tells part of the story.

It does not tell you whether the business has the cash to fund that level of activity. It does not show you when your tax bills land against your thinnest cash months. It does not answer the question every growing business owner faces sooner or later: can I actually afford to do this?

FDPack answers those questions. Every month. Before you have to make the decision.

Financial modelling and rolling forecasts

The unique FDPack forecasting methodology works with a high level of detail and double entry discipline to ensure we do the job “properly”. Our model is built with the following  structure:

  • Sales & Purchases – for each category specify cash or credit and on what payment terms
  • Fixed Assets – forecast acquisitions and disposals by month with an updated depreciation schedule.
  • Accruals & Prepayments – separate expenses that are accrued or prepaid.
  • Payroll – include all payroll taxes, employee and employer pension contributions and other benefits to replicate the actual payroll. HMRC payments are scheduled for the following month.
  • VAT – apply the appropriate VAT rate to each type of transaction above. Input and output VAT is calculated and quarterly payments scheduled.
  • Corporation Tax – the CT provision is calculated for the P&L and the cash payment scheduled for the following financial year.
  • Financing – include loan repayments or draw-downs, issue of share capital etc.
  • Bank – identify all cash flow movements arising from the forecast transactions.

Drill down into the detail

Having separated the forecast into different transaction types and attached the appropriate accounting codes, our FDPack software is then able to create all the double entry transactions that describe the forecast or budget.

This creates a single database containing, actual, forecast and budget transactions all in the same double entry format, meaning that they can be easily analysed and presented in whatever combination is required. 

If you drill down into any line of the forecast, you will see transaction level detail and not just a single figure, which is the assumed opening/closing balance movement used by some short cut forecasting methods.

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Save Time with Smart Reporting

Like all jobs that are done properly, our FDPack methodology is initially more demanding and time consuming but has significant long-term benefits for the accuracy and reliability of the forecasts and budgets.

Applying these disciplines to forecasting and budgeting ensures that the three financial statements are integrated and reassures stakeholders that the business really understands the mechanics of its finances and its cash flow.

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“The FDPack modelling technique is like renovating a classic car. At one point the parts are all over the garage floor but, by the time you have cleaned them up and put them back together again, you have an intimate knowledge of how the car works. Like any classic car it also needs continual attention to keep it running smoothly”

Simon Phippen, FDPack Consultant.

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Blogs

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